For instance, his percentage would change dramatically if he counted his outs as 9 he would then have to figure 8 if he saw one of the suits cards to his flush flashed. Should he see another player flash one of his suited cards, then 7 times 2 equal 14 plus 2 equals 16 or a 4 percent change? That two or four percent many not seem to be much to worry about, but let me correct you. Two percent of the pot of $5,000.00 equals 100 dollars and 4 percent of the pot of $10,000 dollars equals 400 dollars. If you still disagree with these calculations let me ask you a simple question. Would you rather have a 20% chance or a 16 % chance of winning?
Those odds are about like the Field on the Crap Table. The field has 7 numbers to win with only 4 numbers to lose (is that 7 to 4 in your favor?) however those 7 winning numbers can only be made 16 ways while the 4 numbers to lose can be made 20 ways and that is about 5 to 4 odds of you not winning.
Would you be willing to go into any poker game or and other game for that matter where the odds are 5 to 4 against you? If the answer to that is yes I think the time has come for me to say this…. A fool and his money is soon parted!!! Another saying that would be appropriate is after the poker game you will be going home talking to yourself and crying like a baby because you lost all your money. You would be one of the boys instead of one of the men.
Good Poker players are willing to take a long shot risk providing the reward is high enough but only if the expected rate of return is higher than the actual risk involved. They are kind of like the person who would not play the Martingale System because they might have to eventually put up 512 to win 1. In other words they want an advantage that makes it worth the gamble.
To become a good poker player, it is a necessity to learn the poker hands thoroughly and what sort of hand may be expected to win the pot. He must also observe the action of the other players, to learn their mannerisms, habits and understand their probable strength or weakness from their actions.
He must learn the mathematics involved in winning with the hand he has and to determine his odds that are offered by the size of the pot. Not to be forgotten is learning the odds for and against not only himself but also his opponents when drawing to help each others hand.
As a general rule you can pretty well be assured of a win if you have been dealt a straight or higher hand. That will call for a raise even though two players may have bet or previously raised. The percentages are in your favor with a straight or higher hand.
When you are dealt trips you will normally win and that hand will warrant a raise even if one player has raised. However, you should only call if two players have raised.
After the flop, should you be dealt two pair it is about 2 to 1 that you have the highest hand at that time. It is also an 11 to 1 chance against anyone improving their hand so it becomes necessary for you to raise immediately. This will probably drive some of the players out who might stay and improve their hands.
We are down to 1 pair…. The pair of Aces is the best hand just beneath the two pair, followed by a pair of Kings which has a 5050 chance of wining, when only five or six players are still in the game. The pair of Queens probably is the best hand if only four players remain. If there have been four players who checked, a pair of Jacks could bet even though there are two players yet to be heard from.
You must be especially careful when betting under these conditions. Count your outs carefully; make sure the size of the pot is large enough to warrant a draw. Remember a fourflush draw gives you nine chances out of fortyseven to make your flush or about 5 to 1 against you making the flush. Don’t forget the cards your opponents have, is it 18 if ten are playing and 12 if seven are playing.
On a Flush draw, if the size of the pot is four times or more money, than you have to contribute, the draw is worth the gamble. If the size of the pot is less than four times more money, than you have to contribute, the draw is not worth the gamble and should be mucked.
On a Straight draw, if you have a double ended draw to a straight you have a 5 to 1 chance of not filling a straight, but if the pot is five times or more as large as the amount you must contribute that are sufficient to warrant a call on the 5 to 1 chance. However on an inside straight it is almost never worth playing since the chance of filling the straight is 11 to 1 against it.
